Twenty-Oh-Eight

2006 saw the death knell of the Reagan conservative movement. Though most news sources and blogs are trying to concentrate only on 2007 and the new Democratic 110th Congress and claiming that it's too early to talk about 2008, I am looking forward to 2008. As much as 2006 was an historic midterm election, 2008 will be an equally or possibly even more historic election. The GOP will be defending about twice as many senate seats than the Democrats, which means the Dems will more than likely see their hold on the Senate strengthen greatly. The 2008 presidential election will see the first totally wide-open election since the 50s, as there is no incumbent (president or vice president) running on the ticket. Though most pundits and bloggers etc. are claiming they have no list of favorites yet for 2008, I would bet that they actually do. I certainly do. Though most likely my list of favorites will change as the potential candidates campaign or decide not to run, and with all of the news that will be made, as of now here is my list of favorite Democratic candidates for president in 2008.

Al Gore: My #1 dream candidate. Though he claims he will not run, I still harbor hope that he will decide to do so. It's possible, as the other candidates will begin running early and will already be getting attacked, a strong enough Draft Al Gore movement and the pull of being able to do more good might be enough to pull him in. Though he "lost" in 2000, he doesn't have the stigma of a loser since he did in fact win the popular vote, and many if not most in this country think he actually won the election. Gore has also become extremely popular, and has been giving amazing speeches and showing up on all of the late night talk shows; not the almost robotic candidate we saw in 2000. And here is where Al Gore could totally rip the Democratic field wide open: He has done a great job of making it known he will not likely be running; he hasn't been lining up staff, he hasn't been making the trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, he hasn't been putting money into a possibly campaign war chest (though he obviously has no shortage of money). So the spotlight is on the other candidates who are doing those things and likely lining up to run, most notably Obama, Clinton, and Edwards. These three (and likely even more) will announce one way or another probably in January, and will then become even larger targets than they already are now. However, a candidate does not have to announce that early; they do so to line up money, delegates, etc. Al Gore could wait another year and let the press and the pundits tear into these candidates, and even more, let these candidates tear into each other. Al Gore could enter the field in late '07 and, having been untouched and likely continuing to be popular (not to mention probably with an Academy Award on his nightstand) would tear the field wide open. I will be keeping Al Gore in my number one spot until it would be too late for him to enter the game; I might like other candidates, but I'm holding out for him.

Obama: I like Obama. I would tend to think he is inexperienced, and that he sometimes does seem like someone who just has great charisma and makes great speeches, but I think he has something to offer. Though we haven't elected someone from the Senate since Kennedy, Obama is being compared to a Kennedy, and has about as much experience as Lincoln did when he was elected president from the same state. I definitely like him, and I definitely think he is electable. I am hoping he doesn't fall into the Harold Ford trap of campaigning too much on his religious beliefs; other than that, I think he's a solid favorite.

Clinton: I like Hillary, and I think she would be a good president. I would love to have a woman president and a woman Speaker of the House; that would be an amazing sight at the State of the Union. Obama has a leg up on Hillary for one of the hottest issues right now, Iraq: Obama was against the unpopular war from the start, while Hillary voted for it and hasn't really ever shown any regret for that vote. She's also married to arguably the most talented politician alive right now, and many (including myself) would not mind having him back in the White House. Though she is not my favorite, I would have no problem voting for her, and she is definitely in the top tier.

John Edwards: Very charming, smart, and has some great views on economics, the middle class, and labor. Already has experience with campaigning for vice president in 2004, and didn't get nearly as touched as Kerry did (though he did give arguably a poor showing at the vice presidential debates in '04, these were not memorable, and I personally thought he did just fine). I would say that Edwards is tied for my second place spot with Obama and Hillary. I do lean for Edwards lately, though. I think he will be a great candidate and I would happily vote for him.

That would likely be the top tier, with some other candidates emerging. Should John Warner (former governor of Virginia) enter the race, I'd immediately put him in the top tier; I personally wish he hadn't have bowed out, though there are rumors that he may change his mind. Vilsack, though no one outside of Iowa has heard of him, would be at the top of my list in the second tier; I hadn't heard of him either, but have watched some of his speeches and TV appearances and looked at some of his stances, and he could be a dark horse candidate- it might not be a bad year for dark horses, since Obama and Hillary may end up cancelling each other out; this is why I think Edwards might end up on top. Rounding up the list would be Richardson of NM and possibly John Kerry, who I personally like but think he has no chance. Kucinich and the rest are not serious threats to those in the top tier.

I think that, if the Dems can prove in the next year or so that they can get things done, the 2008 election will be theirs to lose. If the GOP is smart, they will run either McCain or Rudy; those are their most formidable candidates. I think Rudy might be too far to the left for the GOP base, and I think McCain is running right fast enough to get the nomination. We would be lucky if they end up running psychopaths like Brownback, Huckabee or Romney. I think 2007 will be a great year, and I think the Dems will prove themselves worthy of the power they have been given. I only hope that they don't take too much of the responsibility for the Iraq War: the President still has the final say, and if the Dems get too involved, they will get tarnished with the unpopular war. Also, the Democrats need to stop trying to court the white southern redneck vote. They aren't going to vote Democrat. The GOP is now a southern party; they took over the South, and now the South has taken over the GOP. I say we let them have it; you can't be all things to all people, and the South isn't giving it to the Dems no matter what. We have the Northeast, which is impenetrably blue, the midwest is quickly trending blue, and the west is pretty solidly blue. We can get the 270 electoral votes we need from those areas. I'm all for a 50-state strategy where we are ready for the pick-ups we might get from scandals etc., but if you look at the numbers, we aren't winning in the South. Let the GOP have the South, I say, and we'll win without them; our policies will still do them good regardless.